Winter Outlooks

Well, the new outlooks for the winter months (and actually the next twelve,) were released today. It is always no surprise to me that the Ohio Valley is placed in an above average regime of temperature for the winter, DJF. The 30-day outlook for December alone calls for Equal Chances (EC) for temperature, whether it be above, below, or average. Of course, if the pattern that seems to be taking hold of the eastern part of the country now persists, it should be below normal. The JFM 90-day precipitation map seems to be demonstrating the axis of a persistent storm track for that period. Excessively wet or white weather streaks across the southern plains into the lower Ohio Valley. Could that mean more snow than usual? The above normal temperature pattern relaxes by the FMA time period, so at least late winter looks normally chilly. The part of the winter that is appearing to be the mildest, compared to normal, looks to be January, on average the coldest month of the year. I was thinking that if the skies were persistently cloudy during that period with a tendency for above normal precipitation, that the cloudcover could raise overnight low temperatures that average in the middle 20s in January to create the above average warmth. I'm only trying to think logically. It has been many, many years since this part of the country has had a forecast of a colder than normal winter, perhaps 20 years? Maybe once 2010 gets here and the unusually cold and snowy 1970s are removed from the 30-year average, this trend may be altered. Who knows? By the way, Louisville experienced its first dusting of snow this evening with a period of intense snow shower activity. Tomorrow looks to be almost 20 degrees below normal for this time of year, with high temperatures struggling to climb to about 35 degrees! Tomorrow night looks to be our first night of the season down into the upper teens for low temperatures (at least in areas outlying the city of Louisville!) Yes, this is more typical of mid-winter. And, they're forecasting a mild one ahead? I guess we'll have to wait and see in that regard. By the way, it is looking like "Turkey" Day will be a near normal lower 50s for afternoon high temperatures. But, that "warmth" doesn't look like it will last.