Considering The Latest Outlooks

Well, I was thinking the low pressure anchored over the Aleutian islands of Alaska would cause the jet stream to re-position itself over the next several weeks, but now I have my doubts. That surface low appears to be in a weakening phase going out about 7 days. However, a storm will slam into the British Columbia vicinity, and I would say, for a few days, give the eastern U.S. a break from the below normal temperature regime. Like I stated yesterday, the outlooks posted over the weekends, I don't take very seriously. Until today, when I can see a pattern that appears to be taking place in the week to two week time period. There seems to be a stalling of the main systems during that time that will set a low pressure trough over the Dakotas region, probably blanketing the area in quite a bit of snow. Another, more like the main surface low, will develop on the eastern side of the Great Lakes. It will be far enough east, as it appears, that the cold will be flowing right back into the eastern part of the country, with the exception of the far Northeast. The coldest weather would appear to be in the middle of the country, stretching into the mid-South (compared to average.) I really don't know how long the pattern will stall, but the new forecast for December came out today, and the east remains in the colder than normal pattern of temps. The severe cold over Alaska would appear to be easing looking out two weeks, so that gives the impression that the pattern will be progressive to at least some degree.

Louisville may have its first "tracking" snow tomorrow, if the snow shower activity becomes intense enough. I wouldn't think there would be more than that much because the snow comes with a trough and residual moisture behind the main low pressure system and cold front.

Short-Term and Long-Range Forecast Discussion

I don't give much confidence to the outlooks released on the weekends because it is my understanding that they are produced without the assistance of forecasters. They are, in other words, automated projections. I did underestimate a late-week cold spell of next week. It may be more like 10 days into the future before warmer temperatures come to the eastern U.S. I did note the building of severe cold in Alaska about 10 days to two weeks into the distance, suggesting the low pressure system over the Aleutians will move east and bitter cold will overtake Alaska. It is my guess that the low pressure will weaken but slam into areas of western Canada around British Columbia. Like I said yesterday and continue to believe, the trough should lift out of the east before that storm moves across the northern states into the plains region. The cold should follow, and plummet behind that system, first building in NW Canada. I would say that between two and three weeks from now, unseasonable cold will likely plummet behind that surface low and cold front. I still expect a period of mild weather in the east, even though the 8-14 outlook released today does not agree with my forecast. It is the extreme cold building in Alaska from that forecast to which I am giving most of my attention.

Updated Forecast (11/28/08)

The system to affect the Midwest into the Southeast on Sunday into Monday looks to bring a variety of weather to the Ohio Valley. It appears that all precipitation on Sunday should be rain with temperatures in the 40s. But, Sunday night, temperatures should fall low enough to change the rain over to snow. Then, occasional snow should persist on Monday behind the surface low, as temperatures hover within a few degrees of the freezing mark. The temperature will be the critical measure as to whether or not roadways will become slippery. It could be that the temperature will remain above freezing until the precipitation ends later Monday. So, only a grassy accumulation could be the result of the snowfall. Anyway, it looks interesting. I will continue to watch the event closely.

In regard to the long-term forecast, the 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks are agreeing with my original thinking. The eastern U.S. is going to warm up in the week to two week range. The outlooks I mentioned call for near normal temperatures in the east. So, it doesn't look warm, but normally chilly. The really cold weather shifts west, but I still believe the intense low pressure that seems to be anchored at the end of the Aleutian islands in Alaska will be the major player in the weather pattern for the month of December as a whole. It appears to be stalled at that location from 3 to 7 days from now. I don't know how long the jet stream will move into a "holding pattern." It definitely appears the eastern U.S. will warm considerably. Most long-range forecasters are still discussing the return of the cold to the east by the end of December, but this low pressure system south of Alaska has to move across the country and bring a pooling arctic air mass in its wake and reconfigure the jet stream into an eastern trough once again. This low around southern Alaska has a barometric pressure lower than a lot of hurricanes, so it really is significant, so much so that it should determine the position of the jet stream across the lower 48. Anyway, I, along with other forecasters will be watching the progression of this system. Personally, I really want a white Christmas this year, so the extreme cold must return to the east in time for the holiday. We will find out soon enough, I suppose.

Happy Thanksgiving To All

I just wanted to take an opportunity to wish all a very happy Thanksgiving! I should be having some very delicious food about 24 hours from now. I know none of them read my blog, but many thanks to all in my family who cook this holiday!!! I wish I had inherited the culinary arts gene in my family, but unfortunately, I didn't!

A Mild Thanksgiving Day As Forecasted & More

As it turns out, I was right about a milder Thanksgiving Day. However, it should be the only day to have afternoon temps. crack 55 degrees this week in the Ohio Valley. Tomorrow we could easily see the high end of the 50s in Louisville. It would be an above average high temperature for a change. I know. Nobody has to remind me that it's not going to last more than one day. But, I'm becoming increasingly interested in a precipitation event to take place Sunday into the day on Monday. Right now, it looks like a mixture of rain and snow, but could it become cold enough for some light snow accumulation? Probably just another dusting, but I'll be watching the development of this system, carefully!

I'm going to make another forecast while I'm thinking about it. Most have prognosticated a sub-normal temperature regime in the eastern part of the country for December. However, I'm anticipating, at least, a period of mild weather in the east because of a huge storm that will be moving south of Alaska in the next 5-7 days. It seems to me that the storm should be intense enough to change the configuration of the jet stream across the country. It should initially push the trough out of the eastern U.S. and raise temperatures in that area. I think we'll experience a really mild period about 10 days to two weeks from now. That's not to say that the cold won't return to the east by the latter part of December. But, this system south of Alaska looks formidable. Maybe as the system moves across the lower 48, bitter cold that has been building up in the arctic will pool in Alaska and NW Canada initially and plummet southward and eastward as the low pressure system and cold front shifts into the eastern part of the country by mid-December. I am really impressed by this storm south of Alaska in the coming days, if I haven't said that already!!!

Winter Outlooks

Well, the new outlooks for the winter months (and actually the next twelve,) were released today. It is always no surprise to me that the Ohio Valley is placed in an above average regime of temperature for the winter, DJF. The 30-day outlook for December alone calls for Equal Chances (EC) for temperature, whether it be above, below, or average. Of course, if the pattern that seems to be taking hold of the eastern part of the country now persists, it should be below normal. The JFM 90-day precipitation map seems to be demonstrating the axis of a persistent storm track for that period. Excessively wet or white weather streaks across the southern plains into the lower Ohio Valley. Could that mean more snow than usual? The above normal temperature pattern relaxes by the FMA time period, so at least late winter looks normally chilly. The part of the winter that is appearing to be the mildest, compared to normal, looks to be January, on average the coldest month of the year. I was thinking that if the skies were persistently cloudy during that period with a tendency for above normal precipitation, that the cloudcover could raise overnight low temperatures that average in the middle 20s in January to create the above average warmth. I'm only trying to think logically. It has been many, many years since this part of the country has had a forecast of a colder than normal winter, perhaps 20 years? Maybe once 2010 gets here and the unusually cold and snowy 1970s are removed from the 30-year average, this trend may be altered. Who knows? By the way, Louisville experienced its first dusting of snow this evening with a period of intense snow shower activity. Tomorrow looks to be almost 20 degrees below normal for this time of year, with high temperatures struggling to climb to about 35 degrees! Tomorrow night looks to be our first night of the season down into the upper teens for low temperatures (at least in areas outlying the city of Louisville!) Yes, this is more typical of mid-winter. And, they're forecasting a mild one ahead? I guess we'll have to wait and see in that regard. By the way, it is looking like "Turkey" Day will be a near normal lower 50s for afternoon high temperatures. But, that "warmth" doesn't look like it will last.

Excellent Heart News!

It's good to finally be reporting good news. Apparently, the doubling of the dose of Altace, one of my heart medications, caused my cardiac output to increase substantially. My ejection fraction increased from 30% to 46%. Normal is 55% or higher. So, my heart is doing better with the two medicines prescribed to improve its function. I am, still, at a higher risk if I were to endure back surgery. But, if I can take the steroid treatment every six months and remain on the narcotic pain killer, hydrocodone, I should be able to continue to tolerate my pain better. My pain level is less than it was before the steroids and Lortab, so whatever works short of surgery is what I would pursue. It certainly beats a surgical procedure! I saw my cardiologist yesterday, and he told me that my ejection fraction will vary from day to day, but that my heart did seem to respond well to the increased Altace. My left bundle branch block remains, but I was doing very well the day of my MUGA scan back in June. I mean 46% is all the closer to the normal 55% or better, right? :o)

Early Forecast For Thanksgiving

I made mention of it last weekend, but I'm thinking Thanksgiving will be a dry day with afternoon temperatures in the 50s. The lower 50s are average for this time of year, so it won't really be mild by any stretch of the imagination. A local forecaster has mentioned that he believes truly bitter cold air may reach the eastern U.S. around December 5th. I don't know how he can see out that far, but I got this year's Old Farmer's Almanac and it says that December will wind up being the coldest month of this winter. I suppose we will soon see if that is the truth. I was hoping that some of the warmth of the western U.S. would spread east in time for the holiday with above normal temperatures, but it looks like seasonable is about all we can count on! However, the end of next week should definitely be warmer than any given day this week!!! :o)

FIRST OFFICIAL SNOW FLAKES OF SEASON!

Well, November 17th of 2008 will go down as the day most of the Ohio Valley saw its first snow flurries of the season. Now, I'm really looking forward to our first light accumulating snowfall of the season, oh, maybe in the order of a couple inches... nothing too heavy! :o)

Weather Update (Since I Did Make A Forecast)

I may have been wrong about next weekend's cold spell being especially chilly. It is now looking like the next three days (Sunday - Tuesday) will wind up being among the coldest of the next seven, though a reinforcing shot of arctic air is due by next Friday. Even though it will not warm up considerably at any time during the next week, the sharply colder forecast for the end of next week and weekend may have been overstated. I do not believe high temperatures will rise above 50 degrees in the Louisville, Kentucky area until the week of Thanksgiving if my original thinking comes to fruition. I just glanced at the 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks for the country in regard to temperature and precipitation. Both periods reveal a pattern of warmer than normal weather over the western 2/3 of the country and colder than normal temps. over the eastern 1/3. Apparently, the cold in the eastern third will be reinforced a number of times over the next two weeks. I still have a feeling that it will warm by the Thanksgiving holiday. We will just have to wait and see, I suppose. :o) Lastly, I don't see anything in the forecast that would bring more than mere flurries to the Ohio Valley. Personally, I cannot wait to see them. But, I do not see an accumulation of snow in the near future, despite temperatures struggling to reach the 42 degree mark on Sunday afternoon. On Monday, before the next polar front clears the area, temperatures could easily reach 45 degrees. It should remain in the upper half of the 30s on Tuesday afternoon in Kentuckiana. The next day of coldest weather after Tuesday should be Friday.

November News

I just wanted to update my health news. Next Monday, I go to my cardiologist to consult about a possible back surgery. We will discuss if my heart is strong enough to endure the anesthesia required for the procedure. I took a round of Medrol (steroids) which was supposed to help with the inflammation and pain. It did help to a degree, but I continue to have the sensation of being stabbed in the middle of the back. The thoracic spine specialist said he would relieve my pain by fusing T8 and T9 that are the most herniated of the discs. I can manage the pain at this point with the narcotic pain killer Lortab, Celebrex, and Neurontin. My gp is worried about me becoming dependent on narcotics at my age, but they help tremendously. I'd rather be on a medication that I could become addicted to than go through surgery, which is far more risky! I get so tired of every physician I see say to me that I'm too young to have these problems. I don't want to hear this fact. I mean, really, tell me something I didn't already know... the cardiac issues and now the herniated thoracic discs in my spine. The back pain started out as a diagnosis from my gp of fibromyalgia, which I think I do have also, but the MRI would tell a different story.

Anyway, to a more pleasant topic, the weather. It looks like we overall missed autumn weather altogether, going from September-type warmth to a more early December-like pattern. I've looked at the long-range forecasts, and it looks like a real blast of winter cold could hit the eastern part of the country not this weekend, but the next. Louisville will probably see its first snowflakes of the season this weekend however. I believe Saturday will be a day of slowly falling temperatures throughout the day into the 30s with clouds and an occasional snow flurry. Looking even further out, it would appear that colder than normal weather will stick around until the days approaching Thanksgiving when a more zonal-type of jet stream with milder temperatures could replace the deep trough and cold in the east. We will see if my inclinations are correct in a few weeks. Personally, I'm hoping the cold spell around November 20-22 will bring snow showers that will dust the ground, which I know is still too warm to support a light snow accumulation. Maybe it will be the first "tracking" snow of the season? I apologize to all the snow haters out there in the area. I love snow, but the Ohio Valley seems to get more ice storms than snowstorms with warmth easily overtaking the upper layers of our lower atmosphere. Oh well, I won't get technical. I just hate ice because you can't walk on it, let alone drive on it. When we have sleet/ice pellets or freezing rain, I refuse to drive! It's lunacy to do it! You take your life into your own hands. Anyway, first flurries this weekend and light snow showers the following weekend... that's my forecast. Take it for what it's worth. But, again, I'm expecting a mild spell for the holiday week. So, don't fret if you're in the eastern U.S.!

In regard to music, I've discovered an amazing new folk artist who plays beautiful music. His name is Daniel Martin Moore. I found him through the nationwide World Cafe program on a local public station that plays mostly adult-alternative music. I've discovered so many new and interesting music artists and groups through the World Cafe. If you enjoy dance music from the late '70s and early '80s, Hercules & The Love Affair might appeal to you as well. I listened to them and really enjoyed the music. I hate club music from the last 20 to 25 years. I will always prefer the original disco with real musicians/live bands playing the music in the studio. Like Billy Joel said in the 1980 song "It's Still Rock & Roll To Me," the music is still rock if it's "hot funk, cool punk, (or) old junk... (maybe) next phase, new wave, dance craze, anyways." Well, if it were still 1980, I'd agree with all these statements! I'm a limited fan of techno/electronica if there are still elements of live music in it. But, club music is just repetitious programmed sounds, voices, and beats. I hate it. I would much rather listen to an artist like Daniel Martin Moore who plays his acoustic guitar and sings (very well.) He adds studio musicians when necessary for support. There are no drum machines or programming in his music! Anyway, that's enough of my soapbox for today! :o)