Updated Forecast (11/28/08)

The system to affect the Midwest into the Southeast on Sunday into Monday looks to bring a variety of weather to the Ohio Valley. It appears that all precipitation on Sunday should be rain with temperatures in the 40s. But, Sunday night, temperatures should fall low enough to change the rain over to snow. Then, occasional snow should persist on Monday behind the surface low, as temperatures hover within a few degrees of the freezing mark. The temperature will be the critical measure as to whether or not roadways will become slippery. It could be that the temperature will remain above freezing until the precipitation ends later Monday. So, only a grassy accumulation could be the result of the snowfall. Anyway, it looks interesting. I will continue to watch the event closely.

In regard to the long-term forecast, the 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks are agreeing with my original thinking. The eastern U.S. is going to warm up in the week to two week range. The outlooks I mentioned call for near normal temperatures in the east. So, it doesn't look warm, but normally chilly. The really cold weather shifts west, but I still believe the intense low pressure that seems to be anchored at the end of the Aleutian islands in Alaska will be the major player in the weather pattern for the month of December as a whole. It appears to be stalled at that location from 3 to 7 days from now. I don't know how long the jet stream will move into a "holding pattern." It definitely appears the eastern U.S. will warm considerably. Most long-range forecasters are still discussing the return of the cold to the east by the end of December, but this low pressure system south of Alaska has to move across the country and bring a pooling arctic air mass in its wake and reconfigure the jet stream into an eastern trough once again. This low around southern Alaska has a barometric pressure lower than a lot of hurricanes, so it really is significant, so much so that it should determine the position of the jet stream across the lower 48. Anyway, I, along with other forecasters will be watching the progression of this system. Personally, I really want a white Christmas this year, so the extreme cold must return to the east in time for the holiday. We will find out soon enough, I suppose.