Short-Term and Long-Range Forecast Discussion

I don't give much confidence to the outlooks released on the weekends because it is my understanding that they are produced without the assistance of forecasters. They are, in other words, automated projections. I did underestimate a late-week cold spell of next week. It may be more like 10 days into the future before warmer temperatures come to the eastern U.S. I did note the building of severe cold in Alaska about 10 days to two weeks into the distance, suggesting the low pressure system over the Aleutians will move east and bitter cold will overtake Alaska. It is my guess that the low pressure will weaken but slam into areas of western Canada around British Columbia. Like I said yesterday and continue to believe, the trough should lift out of the east before that storm moves across the northern states into the plains region. The cold should follow, and plummet behind that system, first building in NW Canada. I would say that between two and three weeks from now, unseasonable cold will likely plummet behind that surface low and cold front. I still expect a period of mild weather in the east, even though the 8-14 outlook released today does not agree with my forecast. It is the extreme cold building in Alaska from that forecast to which I am giving most of my attention.